Hershey ($HSY): buy in pieces $156 to $170, long term

$HSY: I think Hershey is a buy because the margin recovery is already here and the stock has not priced it in.

11% below its 200-day
About 19x the 2026 earnings guide
3.5% dividend yield

I'm buying in pieces between $156 and $170 to hold for years.

Not financial advice

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The bear case: Q3 volume fell about 10 points while prices rose about 11 points. Management trimmed the organic sales guide to about 3% and cited a more cautious consumer and weaker convenience stores. If people keep buying less candy at these prices the recovery takes longer.

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The chart: I read the fall from the $239 top on March 2 as an A-B-C correction. A ended at $168 in June, B bounced to $190 in August and C bottomed at $156 on Oct 1. The Oct 29 low of $160 held above it. The C low sits just under the 78.6% retrace of the 2025 to 2026 run.

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The business: Q3 adjusted EPS was $2.64 against a consensus near $2.12. Adjusted gross margin rose 1,090 basis points to 42.7%. Management raised the 2026 adjusted EPS guide to $8.58 to $8.74 and still expects low double-digit EPS growth in 2027.

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My plan: I'm adding between $156 and $170 and holding for years. A weekly close below $140, the February 2025 low, means I'm wrong. The $1.452 quarterly dividend pays me about 3.5% a year while volumes recover. This is a multi-year hold, not a trade.

Sources: Hershey Q3 2026 results (SEC exhibit 99.1) · Hershey Q3 2026 results press release · Zacks via Yahoo Finance: HSY Q3 earnings top estimates · Investing.com: Hershey Q3 2026 earnings call transcript · MarketBeat: Hershey Q3 2026 prepared remarks · RTTNews: Hershey lifts FY26 earnings view, cuts organic sales forecast

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.