I have been watching $SPCX closely.
I have been watching $SPCX closely. Today was a real wake-up call for anyone who thought the post-IPO hype would last forever. The stock fell to $131.11. This is the first time it has dropped below its $135 IPO price since the June debut. We are now seeing a drawdown of about 29.5% from that initial peak over $225. It seems the market is finally weighing execution risk against the narrative.
The valuation gap is still the big issue as we head into tonight's launch. SpaceX trades at roughly 110x its expected 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion. The broader aerospace industry averages just 2.5x to 3x sales. That high premium assumes perfect execution. Yet we go into Starship Flight 13 tonight with May's V3 explosion still fresh in our minds. This second V3 test must deploy 20 Starlink satellites. It also needs to validate heat shield cameras during reentry. These steps are needed to justify even part of that multiple.
For investors, the grace period is officially over. At 110x sales, every technical milestone becomes a binary event for the stock price. It is no longer just an engineering win. Tonight's launch is about more than proving the V3 design works after the last failure. It tests whether the market has enough patience left to wait for fundamentals to catch up to this valuation.
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
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