$NVDA daily pick: buy a starter on the 200-day after the Intel-led chip selloff, add $190 to $197
$NVDA: I'm buying a starter in @nvidia right on its 200-day after Friday's chip selloff and I'd add $190 to $197.
As of Friday's close ($204.64, markets closed for the weekend):
Down 4.2% Friday and 16% off the Oct 6 record high
Sitting on the 200-day at $204.38
Q2 revenue up 106% to $96.2B
About 13x the fiscal 2028 EPS estimate
I think Friday was Intel's problem landing on Nvidia because Intel's miss was about weak PC demand and Nvidia guided $108B for the quarter it reports Nov 17.
I'll take the AI leader at 13x forward earnings over the AI panic.
Not financial advice
Why Friday happened: Intel fell 28.6% on a weak Q4 guide tied to soft PC demand. AMD fell 10.9% and the Nasdaq lost 2.9% for its worst day since June. Nvidia dropped 4.2% with the group.
Bear case: the market is worried AI spending is running ahead of AI profits. Nvidia is also in talks to guarantee debt for a customer's data center (Nscale, per The Information and Bloomberg). If big tech slows capex the multiple can shrink fast. That's why I'm starting small.
The catalyst: Q3 results come Nov 17 after the close. Nvidia guided $108B plus or minus 2% and the Street is at about $108.8B in revenue and $2.47 EPS. I care most about data center growth and any read on next year's orders.
What I'd watch: a weekly close under the $189.80 June low means I'm wrong and I step aside, about 7% below Friday. Reclaiming the 50-day at $221.75 says the scare is over. Street target is about $339 with 60 Buys, 16 Holds and 3 Sells for what it's worth.
Sources: Reuters via Yahoo: Nasdaq's worst day since June, Intel -28.6%, Nvidia -4.2%, AMD -10.9% · CBS News: Nasdaq sheds 700+ points, Nvidia -4.2% · CNBC: Intel worst day since the 1970s on weak guide and PC softness · Reuters via Investing.com: Intel warning sparks chip rout · NVIDIA Q2 FY27 results: revenue $96.2B +106%, Q3 guide $108B · NVIDIA: Q3 FY27 call Nov 17
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
$AVGO daily pick: sell Nov 20 $300 cash-secured put
$AVGO: I'm selling the Nov 20 $300 put and getting paid to wait on Broadcom. As of Friday's close ($328.75): 11% below the 200-day and 34% off the June high Credit $5.15 for ~1.7% in 35 days (~18% annualized) Breakeven $294.85 sits just above the $289.96 March low About 17x next year's EPS estimate with revenue up 85% last quarter
T-Mobile US ($TMUS): buy in pieces $144 to $160, long term
$TMUS: I think this is a buy after the SpaceX scare. 16% below its 200-day About 11x 2027 earnings estimates $18.7B+ of free cash flow guided for 2026 The market is pricing a 2030 problem into a 2026 cash machine.
$CAT daily pick: sell Dec 18 $560 put (buy-side) after the Q3 selloff
$CAT: I'm selling the Dec 18 $560 put on @CaterpillarInc after the post-earnings drop and getting paid to wait. As of midday ($632.92): Down 11% in two days, 22% below the 200-day and 41% off the June high Credit $9.45 for about 1.7% in 49 days (~13% annualized) Breakeven $550.55, about 13% below today About 19.5x 2027 EPS estimates
AI Capex Is Splitting Free Cash Flow Margins Across 11 Tech Names
$NVDA recorded $302.97B in trailing twelve-month revenue and a 41.9% free cash flow margin, 5.1 percentage points below the 47.0% of the four…
$NVDA recorded $302.97B in trailing twelve-month revenue and a 41.9% free cash flow margin, 5.1 percentage points below the 47.0% of the four quarters ending one quarter earlier. Nvidia still leads the tracked group by margin, with about $127B in TTM free cash flow.