Record 14.9M TLT calls with the 30-year near 5.6%: ~2% real yield if CPI hits 3.6%
Traders bought a record 14.9 million call options on TLT, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, in the past month. It's a bet that long yields fall, with the 30-year near a 24-year high of ~5.6%.
Friday ran 898K calls to 236K puts, about 3.8 to 1.
If Wednesday's CPI prints the expected 3.6%, the 30-year pays ~2% over inflation. Not a crazy entry.
https://x.com/NoLimitGains/status/2109247704492863840
Sources: @iamjohnbaiano: Friday's TLT options skewed to calls, 898k vs 236k puts · X story: Traders Place Record Bet on Falling Long-Term Interest Rates (30-year near 5.6%) · X story: Markets Brace for Key Inflation Data (September CPI Wednesday, expected 3.6% headline)
Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.
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