Boeing guided free cash flow to $3 billion for next year and $6 billion for 2028.

Boeing guided free cash flow to $3 billion for next year and $6 billion for 2028. Wall Street consensus was $5.6 billion and $9.6 billion, per LSEG. That gap, plus a slower 737 ramp, is what the market sold today.

The company also cut its full-year delivery target and said it will miss its goal of 500 jets this year. CEO Kelly Ortberg said the 737 MAX is running at about 47 jets per month, with the next step-up, to 52, targeted for the second half of 2027. Shares fell as much as 11.1% to $167.43 and closed at $168.18, down 10.7%, near the lows and at the stock's lowest level of 2026.

I'll give Ortberg some credit here. He said Boeing is ramping "the right way" and wants to "stay smart about this, stay disciplined." After everything this company has been through, a careful production ramp is the right instinct, and I'd rather see a slipped date than a rushed line. He also flagged high fuel prices as "certainly something we have to continue to watch."

Still, pushing the next rate increase into the back half of 2027 is a meaningful wait, and the cash guidance lands well below what investors had modeled for two years running. Discipline is the right call, but it takes time and money. My question is how long the market keeps paying for that patience before it wants to see the ramp actually show up in deliveries and cash.

$BA

Sources:
Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-27/boeing-has-wider-than-expected-jet-unit-loss-as-deliveries-stall
Virginia Business (Reuters): https://virginiabusiness.com/boeing-delays-737-production-ramp-up-slows-cash-flow-growth/
TradingNews: https://www.tradingnews.com/news/nasdaq-rips-1-percent-sp-500-hits-7728-dow-stalls-as-bna-drops

Not financial advice. For informational and educational purposes only.